The theory behind the title
Nakhai said the show wanted to explore the more math-based way of evaluating hands, including game-theory principles, that had taken over poker strategy.1
The fundamental theorem of poker
David Sklansky set it out in The Theory of Poker: every time you play a hand differently from how you would if you could see your opponents' cards, they gain; every time they do the same, you gain. Winning means making fewer and smaller mistakes than the other players.2
The decision rule behind it is expected value: the correct play is the one with the largest EV. The theorem holds fully heads-up but has limits in multi-way pots.2
A worked example from the pilot
PokerStrategy's coach "robmaf" reviewed the pilot hand, in which the hero calls a 3-bet out of position with a suited connector on a read.3 His reasoning in short:
| Step | robmaf's point |
|---|---|
| Villain's 3-bet range | QQ+, AQ+, KQ, QJ and suited connectors, per the hero's own read |
| Value vs bluffs | AK, AQ, KQ make 48 combos and QQ+ 18, so about a quarter of the range is value and the rest bluffs |
| Problem | Suited connectors such as 76, 98, T8 and T9 connect with the board, and villain can bluff-shove the river with a seven |
| Verdict | Fold preflop; 88–TT would make the read-based call good |
Nakhai's answer to this kind of criticism was that the hand is meant as a mistake the character learns from later.1